Note: Articles posted in this blog are clips from other sources (e.g. newspapers) and are not the words or the views of the submitter or of Kypros-Net Inc.

Saturday 9 February 2008

Election Polls since January 2008

A total of 23 Polls took place since 1st January 2008. A complete list is provided below:

  1. Simerini (to be published sunday 10 Feb)
  2. Politis 1000 people, 2-7 Feb
  3. ANT1 1356 people, 31 Jan - 8 Feb
  4. Phileleftheros 1112 people, 1-7 Feb
  5. SIGMA 1000 people, 21 Jan - 5 Feb
  6. Haravgi 2055 people, 24 Jan - 3 Feb
  7. TV Plus 2000 people, 31 Jan -2 Feb
  8. Simerini 800 people, -1 Feb
  9. MEGA 1495, 28 Jan-1 Feb
  10. ANT1 1661, 17-30 Jan
  11. Symmetron 1200, 30 Jan
  12. CyBC 1600 people, 19-29 Jan
  13. Simerini 800 people, -25 Jan
  14. Politis 800 people, 19-23 Jan
  15. PA College 1298 people, 15-21 Jan
  16. Simerini 800 people, -18 Jan
  17. Phileleftheros 1004 people, 10-17 Jan
  18. Symmetron 1200 people, 7-15 Jan
  19. SIGMA 1002 people, 7-14 Jan
  20. ANT1 2130 people, 17 Dec - 14 Jan
  21. Simerini 800 people, -13 Jan
  22. Politis 800 people, 7-11 Jan
  23. TV Plus 2000 people, 9-11 Jan
Below you can find the trends of the polls for round 1. In calculating these trends the following steps were followed:

  • Simerini was running a poll every 2 days. As their sample between polls was overlapping, we only took into account the polls that they published every Sunday to eliminate this problem.
  • The date of the poll is the last day of its data collection. For example if a poll was run from 10-15 of June then the date of poll displayed on the graphs is 15th of June.
  • Undecided vote was distributed to each of the four candidates as a share of their decided vote.


Anonymous said...

There are some simple reasons why Papadopoulos support was overstated in published polls.
1. Most polls were conducted via telephone, using the CYTA directory as their sample frame. This exluded about one third of the electorate from their sample. kasoulidis was the one that was affected more negatively out of this exclusion.
2.Some polls (ANT1, SYmmetron) simply kept lying by reporting higher Tassos numbers because his strategists thought that would bring in more votes. Other pollsters were pressured to do the same.
3. Pollsters kept weighting based on party percentages. Basically they doubled the EYROKO and EDEK votes because they could not find more than 50% of expected sample voters saying that they did vote for them. (In fact, these people were claiming to have voted DHSY and AKEL. Technically what pollesters were doing actually gave Tassos a few extra points, because they were assuming that these deserters were going to behave as loyal EDEK and EYROKO supportes.

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